37th Annual Logistics Report: Growing Stronger Amid Disruption — Supply Chain Resilience Becomes Core Competitiveness

Introduction

The global supply chain is undergoing a profound paradigm shift: persistent geopolitical conflicts, rapid iteration of trade policies, labor shortages, and rising operational costs have evolved from occasional shocks into permanent operational variables. On June 16, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), in partnership with Kearney and Penske Logistics, released the 37th annual State of Logistics Report in New York, themed "Forged in Disruption." The report notes that the old model of relying on five-year plans has become obsolete, and companies must embed "continuous adaptation" into their organizational DNA.

Key Developments

Core data from the report: In 2025, total U.S. business logistics costs amounted to $2.4 trillion, accounting for 7.8% of GDP, down from $2.6 trillion (8.7%) in 2024. However, compared to the 19% share before trucking deregulation in 1979, efficiency has improved significantly.

The report identifies five structural forces that continue to shape the global logistics landscape: asymmetric global growth, tightening financial conditions (inflation and public debt), accelerating restructuring of trade flows and geopolitics, labor and productivity constraints, and energy price volatility.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved from the experimental stage to measurable commercial value. AI creates value through four capabilities: "interpret, predict, recommend, and execute." However, adoption gaps among companies are wide—leading firms have embedded AI into core processes, while many remain stuck in isolated pilots or have yet to start.

Labor constraints are driving companies to accelerate automation and digital investments. The report recommends that organizations prioritize designing resilient supply chains over pure efficiency, prioritize asset productivity over network expansion, and strengthen end-to-end visibility and decision intelligence.

Modal Analysis

Trucking (Full Truckload and Less-than-Truckload): After experiencing the longest downturn in the U.S. full truckload market, a bottom has been reached through supply-side attrition rather than demand recovery. Since 2022, approximately 89,000 carriers have exited the market. Pricing is beginning to firm, but demand remains divergent. The market is fragmenting from a unified national market into "lane-level" markets, with leading shippers shifting from annual bidding to dynamic procurement.

Rail/Intermodal: The merger of Norfolk Southern Railway and Union Pacific Railroad (aiming to create the first single-line rail network connecting the East and West coasts of the U.S.) has become a focal point for the industry. A revised application was submitted to the Surface Transportation Board in April. Supporters claim it can improve transit times and promote rail conversion from trucks, but critics worry about competition and rates. In 2025, Class I railroad revenue was flat, traffic volume increased slightly, and intermodal revenue declined.

Air Freight: Global demand grew by 3% in 2025.Air Freight: Global demand grew 3.4% in 2025, with significant regional divergence. Tariff-driven front-loading boosted demand early in the year, with Asia-Europe routes growing 10.3%, while Asia-North America routes declined 0.8%. Fuel costs, sustainable aviation fuel requirements, disruptions in the Persian Gulf route, and geopolitical tensions continue to create volatility. The report notes that air freight is shifting toward "high-value-density" goods, where speed and reliability outweigh transportation costs.

Express/Last-Mile Delivery: After the cancellation of the "de minimis" exemption for Chinese parcels, the daily volume of air parcels plummeted by approximately 85%, pushing shippers toward domestic fulfillment. Carriers implemented general rate increases of 5.9%, plus fuel and surcharges. Market divergence is intensifying: ultra-low-cost regional delivery coexists with premium time-definite services.

Ocean Freight: Overcapacity persists, with new vessel deliveries worsening the supply-demand imbalance. However, ongoing disruptions at key chokepoints such as the Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz, Panama Canal, and Black Sea have provided short-term support for freight rates while limiting alternative route options.

Warehousing: Employment remains stable at 1.8 million to 1.9 million, but a shortage of high-skilled positions continues, with annual turnover exceeding 40%.

Third-Party Logistics (3PL): The industry is at a "strategic inflection point," with shippers expecting a shift from transactional execution to end-to-end supply chain orchestration. Leading 3PLs are expanding node density, deploying real-time visibility tools, and applying AI to support complex network integration.

Supply Chain Impact

The persistently high frequency of trade policy changes (averaging once every 1.5 weeks in 2025) has made tariff complexity a "permanent operational variable." The risk profile has evolved from "network debt" (inefficiency from delayed redesign) to "network drift" (ad hoc adjustments gradually eroding performance). Companies must abandon five-year plans and establish dynamic response mechanisms.

Regional Perspectives

Although the report focuses on the U.S., a global perspective runs throughout. Asia-Europe routes are significantly affected by Middle East situations, while Asia-North America routes are under pressure from tariffs and demand divergence. Latin America and Africa corridors are still in early development, but the restructuring of global trade flows offers opportunities for emerging economies. Regional agreements such as IMEC and RCEP are reshaping trade routes.

Future Outlook

The report emphasizes that the next generation of supply chain leaders will be those that embed resilience, pricing discipline, and digital productivity as core competencies. AI, robotics, and autonomous trucks are rapidly moving from pilot to large-scale deployment. Capgemini partner Korhan Acar notes: "Profitable growth has become the core objective. Modern supply chains generate far more information than humans can process; AI helps decision-makers focus on key issues, improving foresight and intervention timeliness."

Conclusion

The core message of the 37th Annual State of Logistics Report is clear: disruption is not a transition but the new normal. Companies must shift from reactive to proactive adaptation, treating digital transformation and automation investments as survival necessities rather than options. Although the logistics cost-to-GDP ratio has improved, operational complexity and uncertainty are unprecedented. Only by continuous evolution can companies grow stronger amid volatility.