Container alliances still dominate east-west trunk routes, but the share of independent shipping companies is steadily increasing.

Alliances Remain the Foundation, Independent Forces Quietly Grow

Against the backdrop of the global container market being continuously impacted by geopolitical and supply-demand fluctuations, alliance cooperation was once key for liner companies to maintain profitability. However, with the official dissolution of the 2M Alliance in 2025, MSC choosing to go it alone, and an increasing number of carriers deploying independent services, the market landscape is undergoing subtle changes.

MDS Transmodal consultant Antonella Teodoro compared capacity data for the three major east-west trunk routes in April 2025 and April 2026, finding that "although alliances remain the core of network design, carriers are deploying capacity through a broader range of independent services and cooperative arrangements."

Transpacific: Non-Alliance Capacity Contributes 70% of Growth

The Transpacific route is less affected by the Middle East conflict, but rising oil prices are pushing up fuel costs and suppressing demand. Among the three major alliances, the Ocean Alliance and Gemini Alliance have maintained stable capacity, while the Premier Alliance grew the fastest (+22%). MSC reduced capacity by 7.5%.

The most significant change comes from the "Other" category (non-alliance/independent services): capacity in this category grew by 13% year-on-year, exceeding 1 million TEU per month, contributing about 70% of the route's incremental capacity, and its total capacity share rose from 34% to 36%. Among independent carriers, ZIM has stood out, consolidating its position as the largest independent carrier after MSC through multiple Transpacific services and the Lone Star Express/ZSL service in cooperation with MSC. In addition, carriers within alliances such as CMA CGM, Maersk, COSCO, Hapag-Lloyd, and HMM also operate some independent services.

Asia-Europe: Gemini Expands, MSC Contracts

Similar to the Transpacific, total capacity on the Far East-Europe and Mediterranean routes increased by about 4%, but structural divergence is clear. The Gemini Alliance boosted its market share from 24.1% to 26.8% with a capacity increase of over 16%; the Ocean Alliance saw a slight capacity increase, remaining the largest alliance; the Premier Alliance was basically flat. MSC bucked the trend, cutting capacity by nearly 16%, with its market share falling from 18.4% to 14.8%.

Independent services also grew significantly, with non-alliance capacity increasing by 25% year-on-year, and market share rising by 2 percentage points to 9%. Growth drivers include independent services from large carriers (such as HMM, ZIM's ZMP service) and emerging non-alliance operators (including CMA CGM's Ocean Rise Express and Wan Hai's FM1). It is worth noting that since the restructuring of regional trade patterns, carriers with their hinterland in Russia and the Baltic region (such as FESCO, NewNew Shipping, etc.) have become a notable feature on this route.

Atlantic: The Only Corridor with Capacity DeclineAs the smallest of the three east-west main routes, the Atlantic corridor is the only one to record a year-on-year capacity decline of 9%. Teodoro pointed out that this reflects market weakness and network rationalization. Non-alliance capacity fell by 7.5%, but still accounts for 30% of the total capacity on this route. Independent services are mainly operated by large carriers (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, ZIM), rather than by numerous small niche companies. ZIM's ZCA service remains one of the largest independent services, with other participants including ACL, Eimskip, etc.

On the alliance side, the Gemini Alliance increased its market share in the Atlantic by 2.8% to 24.4%; the Ocean Alliance saw a year-on-year capacity decline of 24%; although MSC remains the market leader (accounting for nearly one-third of capacity), its deployed capacity also decreased by 12%.