Global Shipping Market Under Dual Pressure of Fuel Costs and Port Congestion: Insights from the Dimerco Report

Introduction

The global shipping market is facing a new round of supply-side tightening. According to Dimerco's June 2026 Asia-Pacific freight report, fuel cost fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and shippers' frontloading behavior are reshaping the global logistics network. From Asian export hubs to European and American consumer markets, tight capacity, port congestion, and freight rate increases have become prominent features of current international freight.

Key Developments

Fuel Costs and Geopolitical Risks Drive Up Freight Rates

The report notes that continued tensions in the Gulf region and uncertainty over energy supplies have prompted shippers to move cargo shipments forward to avoid further increases in transportation costs and supply chain disruptions. This frontloading behavior has directly tightened vessel space and pushed freight rates up.

Meanwhile, rising bunker fuel costs and heightened price volatility are forcing shipping lines to adjust surcharges more frequently. Fuel-related surcharges, previously revised quarterly, are now adjusted on a monthly basis to keep pace with rapid changes in fuel prices and geopolitical risks, adding more uncertainty to freight planning.

Port Congestion and Blank Sailings Disrupt Schedules

The Asia-Pacific region remains broadly manageable, but operational disruptions and congestion are affecting schedule reliability ahead of the peak season. Port congestion in India and Thailand is delaying cargo movements and affecting supply chain plans; transshipment hubs continue to face pressure due to diversions and shifting cargo flows.

In China, space is tight on several key routes, and shipping lines are managing supply and demand through blank sailings and capacity reductions. Space from North China to Thailand and Indonesia is tight, while trans-Pacific capacity is tightening due to fewer vessels. Some carriers are prioritizing light cargo, while large project cargo requires longer booking lead times. The East China market is also affected by disruptions and congestion: Southeast Asia services are delayed due to late vessel departures, and services to the U.S., Europe, and South America face tight space due to numerous blank sailings.

In South China and Hong Kong, U.S. and Europe services remain under pressure due to blank sailings and destination port congestion. Europe services are delayed by several days due to base port congestion, and space is tight on some sailings.

Airfreight Market Under Pressure: Jet Fuel Shortage

Beyond ocean freight, the airfreight market is also facing operational pressure. Jet fuel shortages have forced some airlines to cut cargo loads or switch to smaller freighter aircraft, reducing actual available capacity. Meanwhile, demand for semiconductors, AI, e-commerce, and high-tech cargo remains strong, keeping airfreight space tight from multiple Asia-Pacific markets to the U.S. and Europe.

Supply Chain Impacts

Manufacturing Faces Risk of Production Disruptions

The report warns that continued Middle East tensions and potential disruptions to energy flows could affect the global logistics market. Asian manufacturers are facing supply disruptions related to petrochemical feedstocks used in plastics, electronics, and industrial production. If disruptions persist, shippers may face higher production costs, tighter shipping space, and greater supply chain pressure.

Capacity Tightening Pushes Up Logistics Costs Advance stockpiling and blank sailings have led to tight space and rising freight rates. Meanwhile, the frequency of bunker surcharge adjustments has increased, making it difficult for shippers to lock in long-term costs. For industries that rely on on-time delivery, such as automotive, electronics, and fast-moving consumer goods, schedule delays and insufficient space will directly affect production planning and inventory management.

Regional Impact Analysis

Asia-Pacific: Divergent Market Performance

• China: Space is tight on routes from North China to Thailand and Indonesia; trans-Pacific capacity has been reduced; the East China market is affected by disruptions, with schedule delays.
• Southeast Asia: Malaysia and Singapore remain relatively stable; on Vietnam-U.S. routes, due to early peak season and blank sailings, freight rates are expected to rise, with possible container shortages and risk of cargo rollovers; port congestion in Thailand persists, with declining turnaround efficiency.
• Northeast Asia: The Taiwan market is gradually improving due to summer inventory replenishment, with freight rates stable or slightly firmer; pressure on space in Korea is increasing as carriers prioritize Chinese cargo, and effective capacity on European routes is reduced due to longer transit times.

North America: Relatively Stable but with Bottlenecks

The North American market is relatively stable, with balanced space compared to Asia and lower congestion risk. However, freight rates on routes to Europe have firmed slightly due to higher utilization, and rail congestion in Chicago has extended dwell times for imported cargo.

Europe: Weak Demand Limits Freight Rate Recovery

Demand in Europe is relatively weak, limiting the strength of freight rate recovery. However, the market still faces the impact of rerouting, capacity adjustments, and geopolitical surcharges, with high uncertainty.

Port Impact Analysis

Port congestion is a key link in the current logistics bottleneck. Port congestion in India and Thailand directly delays cargo flow; European routes from South China and Hong Kong face delays of several days due to congestion at base ports; rail congestion in Chicago also reflects the impact of inland nodes on intermodal transport. Transshipment hubs such as Singapore and Malaysia are relatively stable, but rerouted cargo flows may increase operational pressure on them.

Freight and Transport

Ocean Freight

Carriers are generally controlling capacity through blank sailings, leading to tight space. The frequency of bunker surcharge adjustments has increased, affecting freight costs. Freight rate performance varies by route: trans-Pacific routes have tightened due to capacity reductions; European routes are complicated by weak demand and rising costs; South American routes are also tight due to blank sailings.

Air Freight

A shortage of jet fuel has led to lower actual payloads, but demand remains strong, especially for high-tech goods. Air freight prices and space pressure are particularly evident on U.S.-Europe routes.

Intermodal Transport

Rail congestion (e.g., in Chicago) combined with port congestion extends door-to-door transit times, affecting delivery reliability.

Industry Views

In its report, Dimerco emphasized that the current market environment is full of uncertainty. Fuel price volatility, geopolitical risks, and supply chain disruptions are prompting shippers to reassess their sourcing and inventory strategies. Shipping lines and freight forwarders need to work closely together to cope with frequently adjusted surcharges and space changes.

Future Outlook In the short term, the global shipping market will continue to be affected by fuel costs, geopolitics, and advance cargo stocking. If the situation in the Middle East escalates further, disruptions in energy and petrochemical feedstock supplies may intensify, pushing up production costs and freight rates. In the long term, supply chain resilience has become a key focus, and shippers may diversify their sourcing and transport routes to reduce risks.

Conclusion

The shipping market is undergoing a new round of tightening, with rising fuel costs, geopolitical uncertainty, port congestion, and blank sailings collectively constraining capacity. Regional performance varies, but global supply chains are all feeling the pressure. Shippers, carriers, and logistics service providers need to enhance strategic flexibility to cope with changing freight rates and lead-time challenges.