Latin America Supply Chain Resilience Becomes Strategic Focus: Maersk Releases July 2026 Market Update

Introduction

Global supply chains are shifting from occasional shocks to sustained structural volatility. Geopolitical tensions, trade policy adjustments, and climate dynamics are compounding, creating greater uncertainty around transportation costs, schedule reliability, and service dependability. For logistics players in Latin America, these factors directly affect the smooth operation of import and export trade. In its Latin America market update published in July 2026, Maersk noted that supply chain resilience is becoming a strategic priority.

Key Dynamics: Geopolitics, Climate, and Capacity Reliability

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), approximately 20% of global oil supply must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and the geopolitical sensitivity of key trade corridors continues to affect energy markets and shipping costs. Data from Sea-Intelligence shows that the global liner schedule reliability in April 2026 was 62.4%, with average delays exceeding five days, indicating that capacity reliability remains volatile.

Climate factors cannot be ignored either. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts an 80% probability of El Niño forming between June and August 2026, with the probability exceeding 90% by the end of the year. This will significantly alter global temperature and rainfall patterns, bringing regional differences to agricultural production and exports in Latin America: parts of the Andes will see increased rainfall, Central America and the Caribbean will trend toward drier and hotter conditions, while Brazil and Argentina will experience mixed agricultural outcomes, with heightened risks for climate-sensitive commodities such as coffee.

Supply Chain Impact: Agricultural Products and Export Flows Under Pressure

Latin America's economy relies heavily on commodity exports, and climate volatility directly undermines the stability of logistics chains. Abnormal rainfall can damage infrastructure and crops, while droughts affect inland transportation and waterway navigation. When multiple countries experience extreme weather simultaneously, agricultural output fluctuations intensify, making cargo volume forecasting more difficult and testing the flexibility of logistics networks. Maersk emphasizes that end-to-end visibility, predictive analytics, supplier and route diversification, operational flexibility, and localized adaptation capabilities are key to maintaining business continuity.

Regional Performance: Port Operations and Service Adjustments

In terms of port operations, major ports in Central America, the Andes, and the Caribbean, including Cartagena, Moín, Puerto Barrios, Altamira, Manzanillo, Panama, and Freeport, Bahamas, all remain operational normally, with terminal yard utilization and berth efficiency at manageable levels. Port activity on the East Coast of South America is progressing steadily, with vessels operating within planned windows and yard utilization in line with expectations. Ports on the West Coast of South America remain stable, with ample berth availability and good regional connectivity.

In terms of service adjustments, the seasonal peak season from Asia to the East Coast of South America continues into the summer, supporting stable capacity deployment. The TANGO service has added a seasonal call at Montevideo to serve citrus demand, while Norfolk has been officially removed from the TANGO schedule, with related cargo transshipped via Cartagena. The UCLA service will call at the Port of Itajaí weekly starting June 5.

Industry Perspective: From Crisis Management to Strategic Resilience## Industry Perspective: From Emergency Management to Strategic Resilience

Data from the World Economic Forum (WEF) shows that 74% of business leaders view supply chain resilience as a growth driver. This shift is particularly prominent in Latin America, as the region faces structural challenges such as infrastructure gaps, climate risk exposure, and high dependence on global trade. Traditional cost-first strategies are giving way to a management model of "scenario planning + real-time monitoring." Maersk believes that resilience is no longer just a risk management tool, but a fundamental capability for safeguarding growth and competitiveness.

Future Outlook: Volatility as the Norm and Growth Opportunities

As geopolitical and climate uncertainties persist, supply chain volatility is expected to become the norm. Companies need to shift from passive response to proactive planning, absorbing shocks through data integration, multimodal transport solutions, and regionalized network design. For Latin America, strengthening inter-regional coordination and port investment will be key to improving overall resilience. Maersk recommends that logistics players pay attention to transshipment changes resulting from route adjustments and assess in advance the impact of El Niño on the pace of agricultural exports.

Conclusion

Latin America's supply chain is in a period of structural transformation. Maersk's market update shows that whether it is the global liner schedule reliability still below 65% or the high probability of El Niño's return, logistics companies are required to embed resilience into daily operations. In an environment where volatility has become the norm, supply chains that can quickly perceive changes, flexibly adjust, and maintain stable services will gain greater competitive advantage.