US import container volume expected to decline after June: Interpretation of the Global Port Tracker report

Introduction

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime advisory firm Hackett Associates jointly released the latest Global Port Tracker report on June 8. The report shows that U.S. import container volumes will see a significant year-over-year increase in June, but will then enter a downward trend in the following months, with only a slight rebound possible by October. This trend reflects retailers' early stocking up to hedge against tariff and inflation risks, as well as the dampening effect of weak consumer demand on trade flows.

Key Data

The report covers major U.S. ports, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Tacoma, Seattle, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Miami, Jacksonville, and Everglades. In April 2026, the above ports (excluding New York/New Jersey) imported 2.05 million TEU, a month-over-month decrease of 5.1% and a year-over-year decrease of 7.3%.

• Monthly forecasts are as follows:
• May: 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% year-over-year (compared to the low base in May 2025 due to "Liberation Day" tariffs);
• June: 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3% year-over-year (weak imports in June 2025);
• July: 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% year-over-year;
• August: 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6% year-over-year;
• September: 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2% year-over-year;
• October: 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1% year-over-year.

If these forecasts are realized, total U.S. imports in the first half of 2026 will reach 12.6 million TEU, up 0.6% year-over-year.

Supply Chain Impact

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold pointed out that the sharp year-over-year increase in June is partly due to retailers importing early to avoid potentially higher tariffs or fuel costs that may take effect from August. However, the ongoing Iran conflict continues to drive up inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to a downward trend in long-term imports.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett added that the Supreme Court has ruled the "Liberation Day" tariffs illegal, but businesses are concerned about subsequent alternative punitive tariffs. Coupled with carriers passing on soaring fuel costs, retailers have moved peak season cargo forward to June and July. This "early peak" flattens rather than sharpens the import volume curve, after which weak consumer confidence and rising inflation will suppress imports.

Port Impact Analysis

West Coast ports (Los Angeles/Long Beach) may come under pressure during the early stocking-up wave, with a surge in June throughput potentially testing terminal operational efficiency. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports (New York/New Jersey, Houston, Savannah) will also face a short-term inbound peak, but the subsequent decline in demand will ease congestion risks. The impact of Panama Canal water level restrictions and Red Sea diversions on East Coast shipping routes still requires attention, though the report does not provide specific data.

Regional Impact- North America: Weak US consumer demand combined with inflation led to a decline in import volumes in the second half of the year, and retailers' inventory strategies have become more conservative. - Asia: Exporting countries like China will feel the fluctuations in US orders, and shipment volumes may decrease after the front-loading in June. - Europe/Middle East: The Iran conflict has pushed up maritime insurance rates and fuel surcharges, indirectly affecting transpacific freight rates.