37th Logistics Status Report: Peak Season Arrives Amid Maritime Turmoil

37th Logistics Status Report: Entering Peak Season Amid Maritime Turmoil

Introduction

In July 2026, the global maritime industry entered its traditional peak season amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The dual pressures of the Red Sea crisis and the US-Iran conflict, compounded by spreading congestion at Asian hub ports, have placed shipping lines, cargo owners, and logistics service providers under severe strain. The newly released '37th Logistics Status Report: Maritime' points out that although the industry has avoided a complete collapse, the trajectory of freight rates, capacity deployment, and supply chain reliability remain uncertain.

Key Developments

The financial performance of major shipping lines in the first quarter of 2026 diverged sharply: CMA CGM's net profit fell 8.5% year-on-year to USD 8 billion; Maersk recorded an EBIT loss of USD 192 million; Hapag-Lloyd achieved group EBITDA of USD 494 million, but that was a sharp 55% drop compared to the same period in 2025.

At the operational level, major transshipment ports in India—Mundra and Nhava Sheva—and Khor Fakkan in the UAE have experienced severe congestion. Analysts warn that as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or unsafe, the congestion will not ease. Cargo diversion is putting pressure on alternative routes, and schedule reliability is deteriorating further ahead of the peak season.

Supply Chain Impact

Spot freight rates have already reacted first. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, notes that spot rates on the China to US West Coast route have surged 37%, due to congestion caused by the Middle East situation spreading from Asian transshipment hubs such as Singapore, Tanjung Pelepas, and Port Klang.

Philip Damas, Managing Director of Drewry's Supply Chain Advisory division, stated that annual contract rates on several major routes declined during spring contract negotiations, but future trends depend entirely on whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens. "If the strait cannot resume navigation soon, freight rates will remain elevated for a longer period."

Fuel surcharges are another pressure on transport costs during the peak season. Drewry advises shippers to implement independent fuel adjustment policies and rigorously audit carriers' bunker surcharges to avoid duplicate charges under names such as "special fuel surcharges."

Port Impact Analysis

India's Mundra and Nhava Sheva ports, as major transshipment nodes in South Asia, have seen significantly longer vessel waiting times due to the clustering of diverted vessels and declining operational efficiency. Khor Fakkan port in the UAE is also facing overload. The congestion effects from these ports are spilling over to other Asian hubs, with container throughput pressure at Singapore, Port Klang, and others reaching recent highs. Port infrastructure bottlenecks will further constrain effective capacity during the peak season.

Freight and TransportThe route adjustments bypassing the Cape of Good Hope have extended transit times on Asia-Europe routes by 8 to 12 days and increased fuel consumption. Shipping companies such as Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have been forced to reduce nominal capacity on certain routes, implementing blank sailings particularly on trade lanes like Northern Europe-North America and Asia-US West Coast. Multimodal connections have also been affected, with inland rail and trucking arrangements frequently adjusted due to uncertain vessel arrival times.

Regional Impact

• Asia-North America: Spot freight rates from China to the US West Coast have risen sharply, while contract rates show divergence. Shipping companies tend to allocate capacity to routes with high spot rates, making some contract space difficult to secure.
• Middle East-Asia: The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has forced a large number of vessels to bypass the southern tip of Africa. Throughput at Middle Eastern hub ports (e.g., Jebel Ali) has temporarily declined, and their role as regional transshipment centers has been impacted.
• Europe: Northern European ports are receiving more diverted vessels, increasing pressure on rail and barge evacuation at ports such as Hamburg and Rotterdam.
• Indian Subcontinent: Congestion at Mundra and Jawaharlal Nehru Port may prompt shipping companies to temporarily adjust port calls, with Colombo and other Sri Lankan ports potentially absorbing some cargo diversion.

Industry Views

Drewry points out that although there is upside risk for current freight rates, the pressure of medium- to long-term capacity oversupply cannot be ignored. Global container capacity is expected to grow by 7% in 2027 and 10% in 2028, significantly exceeding the growth rate of cargo demand. This means that when the crisis subsides, the market may quickly shift to capacity surplus and rate declines. Damas advises: "Shippers should prioritize building deep partnerships with trusted carriers to gain greater bargaining power and space guarantees."

Future Outlook

In the short term, the peak season will continue to expose the fragility of the supply chain. Shippers need to add additional buffer time to the supply chain and ensure capacity commitments on core routes. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve by the fourth quarter of 2026, global container trade volume could see negative growth for the full year, while freight rates remain high. In the medium to long term, carriers' capacity control strategies and environmental regulations (such as the EU Emissions Trading System) will jointly shape the capacity structure. Multimodal transport and alternative trade corridors (e.g., China-Europe Railway Express, India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) are expected to gain increasing attention.

Conclusion

The 2026 peak shipping season begins amid high uncertainty. Geopolitical risks, port congestion, and fuel costs form a triad posing continuous challenges to the global logistics network. Shipping companies respond by adjusting capacity and surcharges, while shippers need more proactive risk management—including longer lead times, closer partnerships, and stricter cost audits. Over the next 12 months, the resilience and flexibility of global supply chains will face their ultimate test.